Part 1Jan 2026
One Position, Four Bets
Turning conviction into tradeable risk: same label, different bets across AAPL/NVDA, XOM/KMI, and MAG7.
Also on Medium
Research
Managing Equity Risk via Hierarchical Orthogonal Decomposition
Methodology, empirical studies, and the One Position, Four Bets series — hierarchical orthogonal decomposition applied to positions, 13F books, and mutual-fund panels.
Research library
The One Position, Four Bets series and empirical working papers first; shorter product and methodology notes below.
Papers
Series parts and working papers — figures, samples, and replication detail.
Part 2Jan 2026
Risk Structure in 13F Filings
Market, thematic, and stock-specific risk across Buffett, Ackman, Lone Pine, Tiger Global, and Baupost — and what survives the 45-day filing lag.
Also on Medium
PaperNVDA visual case study · economic-profit burden + implied scenario weights
NVIDIA: The Economic-Profit Burden of an AI Bottleneck
A RiskModels.app visual case study in market-implied expectations
PaperCase window: Oct–Nov 2021 (IBM / Kyndryl)
When does a spin-off start having returns?
When-issued market mechanics, the CRSP convention, and how RiskModels incorporates spin-off pricing — the IBM/Kyndryl case
PaperApr 2020 – Apr 2026 · 9,074 funds
Cascade Hedging and the Cost of Interpretability
Subsector ETF value, joint optimization, and executable hedge layers across 9,074 US mutual funds
PaperQ1 2026 · top-AUM cohort (~313 CIKs)
RiskModels Quarterly Funds Report — Q1 2026
Top cohort holdings refresh, factor decomposition, and residual winners for the March 2026 reporting window
Paper2019-Q3 – 2025-Q4 · 114 complexes
Who got NVDA right before it became benchmark exposure?
Early ownership, active conviction, and residual attribution in U.S. mutual-fund managers, 2019–2026
Notes
Shorter explainers on API surfaces, screening, and how to read the cascade.
NoteMarketing explainer · learned L\* selector in production since June 2026
Every Position Has a Level Too
How RiskModels picks the right hedge depth automatically, per stock, per day
NoteMarketing explainer · companion to the industry-panel endpoint
The Industry Beneath the Index
Vasicek peer-β cross-sections expose what sector ETFs paper over
NoteMarketing explainer · companion to the rankings/screen endpoint
Decile One, Not Ticker by Ticker
Server-side rank screening turns the universe into one queryable cross-section
One Position, Four Bets — arc
Part 1 — The problem. Custodial reporting obscures concentration. Four names that looked diversified drew down 50%+ together in 2022. Style factors (Growth, Value) are symptoms, not drivers — subsectors are the real unit of risk.
Part 2 — The manager. The same decomposition applied to five concentrated 13F filers: how portfolio risk partitions across market, thematic, and stock-specific layers; how active structure compounds in dollars; and what survives a realistic filing lag.
RiskModels ecosystem
Research here. Reproduce through the API. Operate in the web app.
RiskModels.org stays the credibility layer: methodology, proof, and exhibits. Product links are kept contextual so the research remains the primary object.
Research
RiskModels.org
Methodology, article series, and public exhibits for institutional review.
Read the researchAPI
riskmodels.app
REST API, SDKs, CLI, and MCP-ready endpoints for reproducible decomposition calls.
Open API docsWorkspace
riskmodels.net
Web application surface for portfolio workflows, dashboards, and authenticated product use.
Open web app